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PRMIA Credit and Counterparty Manager (CCRM) Certificate Exam Sample Questions (Q91-Q96):

NEW QUESTION # 91
The standard error of a Monte Carlo simulation is:

A. Zero
B. The same as that for a lognormal distribution
C. Proportional to the inverse of the square root of the sample size
D. None of the above

Answer: C

Explanation:
When we do a Monte Carlo simulation, the statistic we obtain (eg, the expected price) is an estimate of the real variable. The difference between the real value (which would be what we would get if we had access to the entire population) and that estimated by the Monte Carlo simulation is measured by the 'standard error', which is the standard deviation of the difference between the 'real' value and the simulated value (ie, the 'error').
As we increase the number of draws in a Monte Carlo simulation, the closer our estimate will be to the true value of the variable we are trying to estimate. But increasing the sample size does not reduce the error in a linear way, ie doubling the sample size does not halve the error, but reduces it by the inverse of the square root of the sample size. So if we have a sample size of 1000, going up to a sample size of 100,000 will reduce the standard error by a factor of 10 (and not 100), ie, SQRT(1/100) = 1/10. In other words, standard error is proportional to 1/#N, where N is the sample size.
Therefore Choice 'c' is correct and the others are incorrect.

NEW QUESTION # 92
As part of designing a reverse stress test, at what point should a bank's business plan be considered unviable (ie the point where it can be considered to have failed)?

A. Where large known losses have been incurred on the bank's positions
B. Where EBITDA for the year is forecast to be negative
C. When the realization of risks leads market participants to lose confidence in the bank as a counterparty or a business worthy of funding
D. When the regulatory capital of the bank has been exhausted

Answer: C

Explanation:
As part of a reverse stress test, a firm has to identify and assess the scenarios most likely to cause it to fail, or in other words using the language used by the FSA in the UK, for its current business plan to become unviable. A firm's business plan should be considered to become unviable at the point that crystallizing risks cause the market to lose confidence it it, with the consequence that counterparties and other stakeholders are unwilling to transact with it or provide capital to the firm and, where releant, that existing counterparties may seek to terminate their contracts. Recent experience suggests that this point is reached well before a firm's regulatory capital is exhausted.
Large known losses, or negative EBITDA (earnings before interest , tax, depreciation and amortization) may be indicators or contribute to the loss of confidence, but do not of themselves make the current business plan unviable. Therefore Choice 'd' is the correct answer.

NEW QUESTION # 93
A cumulative accuracy plot:

A. measures rating accuracy
B. measures the accuracy of credit risk estimates
C. is a measure of the correctness of VaR calculations
D. measures accuracy of default probabilities observed empirically

Answer: A

Explanation:
A cumulative accuracy plot measures the accuracy of credit ratings assigned by rating agencies by considering the relative rankings of obligors according to the ratings given. Choice 'd' is the correct answer.

NEW QUESTION # 94
There are three bonds in a diversified bond portfolio, whose default probabilities are independent of each other and equal to 1%, 2% and 3% respectively over a 1 year time horizon. Calculate the probability that none of the three bonds will default.

A. 0.11%
B. 0.0006%
C. 2%
D. 94%

Answer: D

Explanation:
The probability that only none of the three bonds will default is equal to the probability of all surviving. Since default correlation is zero, we can simply multiply the probabilities of survival. Therefore the correct answer is 94% = (1 - 1%) * (1 - 2%) * (1 - 3%)

NEW QUESTION # 95
Under the CreditPortfolio View approach to credit risk modeling, which of the following bestdescribes the conditional transition matrix:

A. The conditional transition matrix is the unconditional transition matrix adjusted for the state of the economy and other macro economic factors being modeled
B. The conditional transition matrix is the transition matrix adjusted for the distribution of the firms' asset returns
C. The conditional transition matrix is the unconditional transition matrix adjusted for probabilities of defaults
D. The conditional transition matrix is the transition matrix adjusted for the risk horizon being different from that of the transition matrix

Answer: A

Explanation:
Under the CreditPortfolio View approach, the credit rating transition matrix is adjusted for the state of the economy in a way as to increase the probability of defaults when the economy is not doing well, and vice versa. Therefore Choice 'a' is the correct answer. The other choices represent nonsensical options.

NEW QUESTION # 96
......

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